TORONTO, ON — The Toronto Maple Leafs have officially locked up one of their most promising young guns, signing Matthew Knies to a six-year, $46.5 million contract extension, according to TSN’s Chris Johnston. That comes out to $7.75 million per season — no small sum for a player entering just his third full NHL campaign.

But make no mistake: this isn’t a gamble. It’s a calculated, forward-looking investment on a player who just cemented himself as the future face of the Leafs’ gritty identity under Craig Berube.

Knies’ 2024–25 Season:

82 GP | 29 G | 29 A | 58 PTS | +14 18:04 TOI | 146 Hits | 71 Blocked Shots | 13.2 SH%

Knies didn’t just put up respectable numbers — he did it while playing a demanding two-way role that few 22-year-olds are trusted with. Craig Berube used Knies like a swiss-army knife all season long:

First-line left wing with Matthews Net-front on PP1 Penalty kill regular (1:12 SH TOI/game) Shutdown minutes vs top lines

Knies played big boy hockey in a market that’s spent the last decade begging for some. His performance down low, on the forecheck, and in front of the net created a different dimension for Toronto’s top six — one that stuck when the games got heavy.

Berube’s 2024–25 Leafs team was built differently. Gone were the endless east-west passes and airy neutral zone turnovers. Instead: chip, chase, and crush. That system begged for a guy like Knies to thrive.

System Fit: Berube Made Knies the Poster Boy

Berube’s Leafs took on an identity shift in 2024–25: less pond hockey, more trench warfare. And Knies thrived in the muck.

1. Role Clarity

From the jump, Knies was penciled into the top six, often riding left wing with Matthews and Nylander. He wasn’t babysitting the line—he was its ballast. Berube leaned on him to win puck battles, get to the front of the net, and wear down defenders shift after shift.

Knies led the team in:

Forecheck recoveries Offensive zone puck battles won Net-front screen assists (on 11 Matthews goals)

2. Offensive Maturity

He didn’t just chuck pucks on net—he made plays. His 29 goals included:

13 from within five feet of the crease 7 on the rush 4 GWGs 5 powerplay tallies as the net-front bumper

His shooting percentage was a healthy 13.2%, and he averaged 1.04 primary points per 60 at 5v5, which put him in the same neighbourhood as guys like Timo Meier and Tyler Bertuzzi’s best Boston year.

3. Defensive Trust

Berube gave Knies penalty kill duties, a massive nod for a second-year pro. His size (6’3”, 210) and reach made him a strong F1 on the PK, breaking up seam passes and creating short-handed pressure.

He averaged 1:12 SH TOI per game, finishing +2 on the PK with a pair of short-handed points.

Knies vs. The Comps

When stacking up Matthew Knies’ new deal against his peers, the Leafs are betting on a player whose numbers already track with — and in some cases surpass — other young power forwards earning similar money.

At 22 years old, Knies signed a six-year contract worth $7.75 million annually. In 2024–25, he posted 29 goals and 29 assists for 58 points in 82 games, averaging 0.71 points per game in a top-line, two-way role under Craig Berube (ESPN). He brought a rare mix of size, finish, and physicality that draws comparisons to Zach Hyman with better hands, or a Dylan Cozens type with more playoff bite.

Speaking of Cozens — the 24-year-old Sabres forward put up 16 goals and 31 assists for 47 points, averaging 0.57 PTS/GP in 82 games (Hockey-Reference). He plays with pace and tenacity but lacked the finishing touch this year. He signed his 7-year, $7.1M deal back in 2023 — a contract that looked savvy at the time but now sits just below Knies in value.

Josh Norris had another stop-and-go campaign in Ottawa. At 26, he managed 21 goals and 14 assists for 35 points in 82 games — just 0.43 points per game (ESPN). Signed to an 8-year, $7.95M contract, Norris remains a capable scorer when healthy, but Knies’ durability and physical consistency give him a leg up.

Mason McTavish, still on his entry-level deal with Anaheim, is due for a big RFA payday in 2025. The 22-year-old notched 22 goals and 30 assists for 52 points in 82 games, hitting 0.63 points per game (Hockey-Reference). Stylistically, he’s the closest thing to Knies on this list: a rugged forward with finishing upside and strong hockey sense, though Knies arguably carries more defensive polish.

And then there’s Brady Tkachuk — the gold standard in this player archetype. Tkachuk put up 29 goals and 26 assists for 55 points in just 71 games, averaging 0.77 points per game (Hockey-Reference). Still just 25, his 7-year, $8.2M contract signed at age 22 remains one of the best-value power forward deals in the league. If Knies continues to develop offensively, he could find himself flirting with that tier by 2026.

In summary: Knies isn’t being overpaid — he’s being projected. His current production is already right in line with players on similar deals, and if he can push north of 65 points while keeping that bruising, net-driving identity intact, the Leafs might’ve locked in a foundational forward at a number that looks better every year the cap climbs.

Where Knies Can Improve in 2025–26

1. Puck Touches & Playmaking

Knies put up 29 goals — love it — but only 12 of his 29 assists were primary. He wasn’t driving as much offense through his stick as he was finishing off cycles or crashing rebounds. His zone entry carry rate was solid (7.4 per 60), but zone exits with control were low, meaning he still defers a lot in transition.

What to watch:

Can he become more than a complementary forechecker? Can he make plays off the rush, not just finish from the crease? Is he comfortable making delay plays under pressure?

If he starts making plays in tight like a Hyman or Landeskog, we’re talking about a 70-point power forward.

2. Consistency from Game 1 to 82

Knies was streaky in 2024–25:

October–December: 15 points in 34 GP January–April: 43 points in 48 GP

Most of that bump came after Berube’s system fully settled and Knies found consistent top-line minutes. That’s fair. But elite top-six players drive results no matter who they’re with, and Knies will eventually have to deliver even if Matthews is off the ice.

Ideal outcome: He avoids dry spells and turns into a night-in, night-out factor.

3. Special Teams Expansion

Knies saw some powerplay time and was decent as the net-front presence (5 PPG), but he can make a leap here. If he starts burying greasy ones like Pavelski or screening like Tkachuk, there’s more meat on the bone.

And on the PK? He looked solid, but the Leafs still leaned more on Kämpf and Marner. If Knies becomes a go-to penalty killer, it makes him even more invaluable in tight playoff games.

East Coast Reality Check:

Knies doesn’t need to become McDavid. He just needs to become a playoff-proof, 70-point bull who makes your team harder to play against in March and impossible to knock over in April.

MLR Hot Take:

Knies will lead the Maple Leafs in playoff scoring next spring.

Why? Because he’s built for the way the game slows down and shifts to the walls. The league will be watching Auston and Willy, but it’ll be Knies banging in the ugly ones when it counts.